Some more swing trades

Been seeing some good success with my swing trades lately so wanted to share some more charts with ya’ll.  We all love charts, don’t we?  I know I do.

I have been swing trading regularly for about 8 months now – about 5 of them taken a bit more seriously.  The first 3 months just kind of small sizes, risking about .5% of my account, fiddling around with some shit.  I started in about September of 2016 with around $8000 or so in a Scottrade account.  I took a handful of trades through the end of the year until about February that I realized I was just spinning my wheels.  Luckily, I had one monster trade in AMD take my account up to about $9600 or so.  The rest were small losers and a handful of bigger winners.

Switched over to IB and the commissions are so low that I am less gun-shy at making trades and taking partials since $2 round trip sure as hell beats $14 round trip.  Especially if you have 2 different targets.  Then you’re paying $21-$28 to scale out for Scottrade and $4 for IB.  BIG HUGE difference.  Anyway, since employing and sticking to a set of rules and criteria, I have seen some good results. My account as of May 29th, 2017 is at $11,030.

Basically the two strategies I use are pullback-consolidation-breakouts which I briefly explained in an earlier post and the breakouts/breakdown strategy using the 3×3 method.

Here are some more trades I am either in or waiting for entry.

AAN – red line was my trigger.  Pullback consolidation breakout method.  I am in long.  My stop is at $34.99 just below the whole number.  Taking off 1/2 off of my position at 1x my risk with my second half target slightly above the recent swing high at $38.

AAN Swing

 

DKS – has taken a beating lately.  Looking to enter on a break below the low of those 2 dojis.  Keeping a tight stop .01 above the doji high.  My first target will be 1x my risk, unless it moves down with strong momentum.  If it moves down strong I may even add to my position to play the breakdown of the double touch you see there.  If unsure, I’ll take off 1/2 at 1x my risk and let the other half ride with my stop at break even.

DKS swing

 

PCAR – This one I will enter using the 3×3 method.  Nice tight consolidation right at the breakdown level.  If it breaks below $62 I will have a stop limit order sitting at $61.98 with my first target at 3% or $60.14.

PCAR swing

 

MU – last trade I’m looking at this week for entry using the 3×3 method. I’ve made some money off of this stock twice now since January. The S&P is making new all time highs and just broke out so I like the support that MU will have behind it.  It has also been strong all year.  Looking for a break above the highs with entry at $29.88.  First target at +3% or $30.78.

MU Swing

 

That’s it for what I am keeping my eye out for this week.

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3 x 3 method for swing trades

I would like to share with you guys another method I use for swing trades.  I use 2 methods, the other which I covered earlier.  This second one has been very successful for me as of late.  I think it works well in markets that are trending and either making new highs or new lows.  The biggest benefit of this method is that every situation is pretty much covered in the description below.  Nothing is really left to your discretion other than the second profit target (but if you get to that point, you won’t care about specifics).

I won’t go into details of the technical entry point as that’s a whole different post.  BUT, if you have an entry that you like to take, here is a great method to use to remove some emotions from the trade.  The entry I like to use for this method are breakouts and breakdowns.  (If you have questions on what those are, just e-mail me).

The method goes as follow (risk 1-2% of your account balance per trade):

Entry and profit taking:

  • Find your technical entry (I like to use breakouts and breakdowns for this method but you can also use pullback-continuations if you are experienced and good with your entries.  I like breakouts/downs because the entry is specific and not as subjective as when to enter on a pullback).
  • After it is triggered, place your first target for +3% of the entry price.  If you entered long at $62.50 the first target is $64.38.  If short, $60.62 for the 1st target.
  • Take 75% of the position off at the first target.
  • Move your stop loss to break even after the first target has been hit.
  • Second target will be at anywhere between 6% and 12%.  This is where your discretion comes in.  If it hits your target and made a pullback and now making the next leg up or down, just move your stop up/down to the recent swing and keep trailing it up under the previous day’s low.  Sometimes you’ll make just as much on the 1/4 position as you did on the first 3/4.
  • If you are not by the computer screen all day, just leave it at 6%.

Entry conditions:

  • If price gaps above or below your trigger by more than 1%, do not take the trade.

Profit Protection:

  • If price moves more than 50% above your trigger to the first target (1.5% of the price), move your stop for 1/2 of the position to the entry price.  If price reverses and goes back to your entry, you will close 1/2 of your position and leave your initial target and stop in place for the other 1/2.  Or if you want, you can close out the full position at break even and re-enter later if you want.
  • This strategy uses momentum for its main reason of profiting.  So if prices sharply reverse, that means that the odds are no longer on your side and (60-80%) of the time it isn’t going to follow through.

Drifting:

  • If you are triggered into a trade and the price of the trade ranges between your entry and the target for more than 9 days, exit the trade with whatever profit you have until that point.  If you still feel good about the trade, close out 1/2 – 3/4 of your position and move your stop to break even.  Free up your capital for other trades that are going to move.

OH SHIT situation:

  • Price has just gapped up or down on your position, past the 3% stop.  Do not panic and exit just yet.
  • Switch to the intraday 5 minute chart.  Wait for the first swing high or low to be made.  Your revised stop is now a few cents above or below this swing.  You’ll find that most of the time the price will move back in your favor.
  • Leave the new stop in place and close when you reach your 3% stop or close out a portion of your position if the move in your direction was sharp.

SUMMARY:

  • 1st target is at 3% of the price.  2nd target at 6-12%
  • After 1st target hit, move stop to break even
  • If the trade gets triggered, goes 50% of the way to your first target and reverses, close out 1/2 of all of your position at break even.
  • Close the drifting positions after 9 days as now you’re gambling with the move
  • The only time you’ll take a full loss is if you get triggered in and prices sharply go against you 3%.  In my experience it has been rare if you choose good entries.

Here are some examples of trades I am currently in using this strategy:

Starbucks.  Great follow through so far.  The red lines are entry, 1.5% to target (which indicates if it reverses back to entry, I will exit at break even) and the first target line of 3%.  Notice how prices sharply turned down after hitting the same exact price 3 separate times, to the cent.  That is a great sign or an odds enhancer that the next time prices reach it, it will break through with conviction.

SBUX swing

 

CSX – Almost identical to Starbucks.  Prices reached resistance 3 separate times.  It has reached 1/2 the way to my target, so my stop loss is now at break even.  Hoping for follow through to my first 3% target.

CSX swing trade

 

EXEL – Here you can see how to handle a trade that gets triggered and goes against you right away.  It reached 1/2 way to my target, so I moved my stop loss to break even.  The next day, I got taken out for a break even trade.  Prices retraced quite a bit and is now looking again to go to the downside.  I actually re-entered this trade short, hoping to see some continuation down.  My new stop is the high of the previous day.  Revised target is 1x my risk for 3/4 of my position.

EXEL swing trade

 

Lambos and bitches.  You follow the rules, you’ll get just that.  And so many gold watches, pimp ass Yeezy sneakers and instagram followers it’s gonna make your bipper jump.

ThinkorSwim (ToS) is closing accounts (and a work around).

Just a heads up for those of you who use ToS platform for charting or paper trading.  I had opened an account with them about a year ago but of course I didn’t make any deposit.  It was purely for the live data feed and their excellent charting platform.  Recently, I got an e-mail notifying me of a $0 zero balance and that they would soon be closing my TD Ameritrade account which would in turn make my ToS platform login no longer valid.  Went to login and lo and behold, the username was no longer valid.

TDClosed

Anyway, I gave them a call to see what was up and they mentioned that they would soon be sweeping and closing down account balances of $0.  Whether your account raises a flag or not, is pure chance.  So you may get by with no issues but it may just be a matter of time before your zero account raises a flag.  Also, the delayed data paper trade side of things would also be limited to 60 days use.  So after 60 days you could either sign up again and keep doing so every 60 days or use the work around.

So, what is the work around?  Well, if you shop around charting platforms, you’ll know that they aren’t cheap.  TC2000 is a good choice but runs about $45 a month with the data feeds.  ESignal runs over $100 a month with data and IB charts are trash.  Taking this into consideration, I’ve found that depositing the bare minimum into the TD Ameritrade account gives you the charting platform, paper money, live data, level 2, the whole package.  And the best part is that $50 is the account minimum.  And you can fund instantly with your bank routing and account number and start using the platform right away.  And it’s $50.  Ya cheap bastards.

If you compare the main charting platforms like that, ToS is by far the best bang for your buck.  And at a one time charge of $50, a steal.  Not to mention that you can always get your $50 back if you want to wire the money back out.  It’s more of a holding fee to use ToS than anything.

Hope that helps with those of you who run into any issues with them.  If you have any other work around please leave a comment.  Ya cheapo.

Cheers